Is Champions draw a fix? Don’t bet against it
Saturday, 15 March 2008
Someone predicted on a forum on the Liverpool Echo website at 10.28am yesterday that Arsenal would draw Liverpool, Man Utd would get Roma and Chelsea would play Fenerbahce, leaving Barcelona v Schalke in the quarter finals of the Champions League. The idea of fixing a live cup draw seems initially ridiculous until you consider the vast weight of money tied up in football sponsorship, TV rights and other stuff. Is it really so far fetched to consider that with such high stakes, some (perhaps limited) form of manipulation could take place?
It’s also a little unusual that bookies refused to take bets against the outcome of the draw. Since when does William Hill turn punters away? They’ll take my money if I want to predict how many corners will be awarded in the Stockport v Macclesfield derby, but not if I want to try my luck on a bet involving the largest club competition in the world? Huh?
Uefa has quickly denied anything dodgy, dismissing the forum post as “a lucky guess”. The post appeared a full 90 miuntes before the draw took place and the chances of guessing the fixtures (though not in the correct order) is 1:105 (according to Someone I Consulted Who Knows About These Things). That is, you have to agree, quite lucky.
This question on Yahoo! Answers also speculated that Liverpool would draw either Chelsea, Aresnal or Man U and that the three English teams excluding Liverpool would avoid each other. (I’m not sure of the precise timing of this question but it seems to have originated before the draw.) This isn’t so wild a guess but is an outcome that is much easier to manipulate. In the event, Arsenal were the first name to be drawn. How difficult would it have been to ensure Liverpool came out next? Of course, you’d then need to make sure either Chelsea or Man Utd followed Roma out of the hat.
Uefa has pointed out that a “rehearsal” draw took place a few minutes before the “real” draw, which the media witnessed (Liverpool drew Fenerbahce, Arsenal got Roma, etc). I’m not sure if this pre-draw is usual practice but inviting the press to witness a practice draw with an entirely different outcome is certainly a good way to defend subsequent allegations of a fix.
I’m not usually one for crack-pot conspiracy theories but I seem to be more open to them of late. In fact, my thinking is generally becoming a little woolly and fanciful. Perhaps the FBI has been experimenting on me during sleep and has subsequently manipulated my memory so I have no knowledge of it.
Anyway, last year, on my old Vox blog, I successfully predicted the four teams in the semi-finals prior to the quarter finals being played, and then a Liverpool-Milan final, so I’m going to try it again. I reckon Liverpool, Man U, Chelsea and Barca will be the four, and it will be a Liverpool-Barcelona final.
Is this just wishful thinking, or is there something I know that you don’t? Remember, you read it here first. But don’t expect William Hill to take a bet on it. (And remember to lock your bedroom door before you go to sleep.)
